The Wilcox Report: February 2023

Last year saw the lowest number of homes sold since 2008; and overall the market looked alot like Q4 2022. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for (NAR) National Association of Realtors, predicts home sales will increase 13% nationally in 2024, for a total of 4.71 million homes traded. Let’s see how close he comes by the end of the year! Here are some more predictions for what might happen in real estate in 2024:


Year-over-year, annualized home sales fell 7.3% in 2023, down from 4.12 million in November 2022. Nationwide US home sales may only see a modest uptick in 2024 over 2023's long-term low..... I see this rising around 15%. (Hopefully more as rates come down and unlock 'low-rate-addiction').


I see rates coming down - continuing the trend that started in late 2023 - and by year-endpossibly dipping below 6%.....maybe even closer to 5% based on what the economy is doing.....remember its an election year! Shorter term rates may dip lower.


There will be a shift away from the construction of rentals as rent pricing drops in areas. Single-family and condo housing construction starts in 2024 should increase after declines in 2022 and 2023. The herd all ran into rentals, and this could reverse. Conversions of commercial properties will pick up.


The average US home is about 40 years old and will require work.... lots of work at times. In this lies opportunity for buyers....and bankers who create products to help buyers buy and renovate. COMPASS Concierge will continue to be an invaluable asset to sellers.


A multitude of styles will continue anywhere from very traditional to ultra-modern, but the more expensive real estate may seek the safety of more classic styling that is removed from 'fashion/trending'.

A. I.

Those with a headstart on AI - like COMPASS - will harness its benefits and negate its negative aspects. Others have lots of catching up to do and by not having built-in AI systems of their own risk gifting their knowledge and skills to other for-profit entities. The brokerage profession is rather good at doing this, regrettably!